The Ottawa real estate market in early 2025 presented a mixed picture, characterized by rising prices despite a slight dip in sales activity compared to the previous year. According to the Ottawa Real Estate Board (OREB, 2025), the average home price in January reached $670,258, a notable 5.8% increase from January 2024. This suggests continued price appreciation in the Ottawa market, even with some cooling in sales volume.

While sales figures were slightly below those of January 2024, a significant influx of new listings—1,359—marked a 14% increase over the five-year average. This surge in inventory provides buyers with more choices, a welcome development in a market that has often favored sellers. However, this increased inventory also intensifies competition among sellers, highlighting the importance of strategic pricing and presentation.

Several factors are contributing to these market dynamics. The increased number of listings suggests more sellers are entering the market, potentially anticipating future changes or seeking to capitalize on current price levels. Anticipation of lower interest rates in the future is likely fueling buyer demand. Even though rates appear as though they will continue on a downward trend, the expectation of future decreases can motivate buyers to enter the market now. This anticipation, combined with the increased inventory, creates a complex dynamic. In addition, economic and political factors can influence buyer and seller behavior, adding another layer of complexity to the Ottawa market.

For sellers, the current market presents both opportunities and challenges. The rising prices are clearly advantageous. However, the increased competition from a larger pool of listings necessitates a careful approach to pricing. Overpriced properties risk languishing on the market, while strategically priced homes are more likely to attract buyers in this environment. The emphasis on "well-priced and presented" homes underscores the importance of not just competitive pricing but also staging and marketing efforts. Sellers who fail to adapt to this more competitive landscape may face lower offers or longer selling times.

In summary, the Ottawa real estate market in early 2025 can be characterized as a market in transition. While prices continue to climb, increased inventory and anticipated interest rate adjustments are creating a more balanced market compared to previous periods. Sellers need to be particularly mindful of pricing and presentation to succeed in this environment. The long-term impact of the economic and political uncertainties remains to be seen and will likely continue to influence market trends in the coming months.

Buyer’s and Seller’s, this is an opportune time to make a move. Reach out with any questions. I’m here to assist and look forward to helping you achieve your real estate goals.

As we step into early February 2025, Canadian mortgage rates are showing a gentle decline. Yet, it's important to note that the recently proposed tariffs imposed by the United States, along with Canada's responses, have introduced some unpredictability into bond yields, which directly influence fixed mortgage rates.

Key Elements Affecting Mortgage Rates:

U.S.-Canada Trade Relations  

The newly threatened tariffs are likely to heighten inflation, although a 30-day grace period is temporarily stalling their complete economic effects. Should the trade conflict persist, we might see slower economic growth, which could lead to lower interest rates. However, an uptick in inflation could result in rising bond yields and, consequently, higher fixed mortgage rates.

Inflation Concerns  

The Bank of Canada (BoC) aims for core inflation around 2%, but there are projections indicating that it may breach 3% in 2025 if tariffs are fully enacted. Persistent high inflation might prompt the BoC to postpone any rate reductions or even contemplate rate increases in the future.

Recession Worries  

There is a consensus among some economists that Canada might face a recession within the next 6 to 12 months if trade restrictions begin to dampen business confidence and investments. In such a scenario, the BoC would likely take aggressive steps to lower rates, which would lead to reduced variable mortgage rates.

Global Interest Rate Dynamics  

The actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve concerning inflation will also significantly affect Canadian mortgage rates. If U.S. bond yields rise, it is likely that Canadian yields will follow suit, potentially raising the costs associated with fixed-rate mortgages.

By staying informed about these factors, homebuyers and current homeowners can better navigate the mortgage landscape in these fluctuating times.

Fixed vs. Variable: Making the Right Choice in Today’s Market

When deciding between fixed and variable rates in the current financial landscape, it's important to assess the risks involved carefully.

Fixed-Rate Mortgages: Consistency with a Price

Advantages:

- Predictability: Your interest rate and monthly payments remain unchanged throughout the mortgage term, offering a sense of security.

- Shield from Increasing Rates: Should inflation push bond yields higher, your rate stays locked in, protecting you from sudden increases.

Disadvantages:

- Higher Initial Rates: Typically, fixed rates are higher than variable rates at the outset, which could mean higher upfront costs.

- Costly to Terminate: If market rates decrease significantly, breaking away from a fixed mortgage can lead to substantial penalties.

Best Suited For:

- Those who prefer a stable payment structure and are risk-averse

- Homeowners with fixed budgets who cannot handle variations in payment amounts

Variable-Rate Mortgages: Opportunities for Savings with Increased Risk

Advantages:

- Lower Initial Rates: Historically, variable rates have offered lower starting rates than fixed options.

- Flexibility: Generally, penalties for breaking or refinancing a variable mortgage are lower, providing more options if your circumstances change.

Disadvantages:

- Risk of Rate Fluctuation: In times of rising inflation, the Bank of Canada (BoC) might delay rate cuts or even increase rates, which could lead to higher payments.

- Uncertainty: The unpredictable nature of the economy can make it difficult to estimate long-term costs reliably.

Best Suited For:

- Borrowers who have the financial ability to absorb potential interest rate increases

- Investors ready to take on some risk for the possibility of savings

Key Insights & Recommendations

Short-Term Perspective (Next 6 Months):

- If trade tensions persist and recession concerns grow, variable rates might experience a slight decrease.

- Fixed rates could exhibit volatility, influenced by responses in the bond market. 

Medium-Term Perspective (12-18 Months):

- Should inflation become a more pressing issue, fixed rates may increase, making it advantageous to lock in a rate now.

- Conversely, if economic conditions deteriorate, the BoC could hasten rate cuts, favoring those with variable mortgages.

Choosing Your Mortgage

- Prioritize Stability and Minimize Uncertainty → Opt for Fixed.

- Expect Rates to Fall and Can Handle Variability → Consider Variable.

- Unsure of Your Choice → Explore a Hybrid (Split) Mortgage.

A hybrid mortgage allows you to balance your loan between fixed and variable rates, managing risk while taking advantage of potential rate decreases.

Final Thought: Stay Adaptable & Keep an Eye on the Market

The mortgage market is constantly changing, and what seems like the best option today may not hold true six months down the line. Regardless of whether you choose fixed or variable, staying informed and collaborating with a skilled mortgage professional is crucial. 

With the right approach, you can navigate the uncertainties of interest rates and secure a mortgage that aligns with your financial objectives.

Canada has been granted a temporary 30-day reprieve from U.S. tariffs. However, according to BMO, there is a potential risk that the Bank of Canada may need to reduce its policy rate to 1.50% by the end of the year if the tariffs are implemented.

This would represent a significant decrease of 100 basis points, or one percentage point, compared to BMO's current projection of a 2.50% rate for the Bank of Canada later in the year.

BMO's updated forecast stems from a scenario in which U.S. tariffs—set at 25% on most Canadian goods and 10% on oil and gas—would take effect. Initially scheduled to be implemented today, President Trump announced a last-minute 30-day delay, which also extends a similar arrangement with Mexico.

BMO economist Michael Gregory emphasized that if the tariffs are indeed enacted, a more rapid cycle of rate cuts could become a possibility. He noted, “If tariffs are actually put in place, then -150bps enters the realm of possibilities again.”

Such a development would result in Canada-U.S. overnight rate spreads exceeding -225 basis points, inching closer to the historic low established in 1997. For now, with the implementation postponed, Gregory indicated that the tariffs have transitioned from a certain occurrence to a potential risk.

For now, here is a snap shot of the BoC policy rate forecasts from the Big 6 banks

For now, here is the BoC policy rate forecasts from the Big 6 banks:

	Current Policy Rate:	Policy Rate: Q1 ’25	Policy Rate: Q2 ’25	Policy Rate: Q3 ’25	Policy Rate: Q4 ’25	Policy Rate: Q4 ’26
	3.00%	3.00%	2.75%	2.50%	2.50%*
	3.00%	2.75%	2.75%	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
	3.00%	2.75%	2.50%	2.25%	2.25%	2.75%
	3.00%	2.75%	2.25%	2.00%	2.00%
	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%
	3.00%	3.00%	2.75%	2.50%	2.25%	2.25%

* Assumes no U.S. tariffs. Expected policy rate of 1.50% in the event of tariffs.
Information as of February 4, 2025